Report: Fresno solar surplus could power AI data centers, ease grid jams

Key Takeaways

1. Next 10 says data centers sited near Fresno-area solar could absorb curtailed power.
2. Curtailment rose 23% from 2023 to 2024, enough to power 500,000 homes.
3. PG&E’s Fresno Zone sees the state’s highest curtailment; Path 15 could be congested 84% of 2039.
4. E&E ties the findings to Trump’s push for more data centers and lower power bills.

What the study says

Eighty-four percent. That’s how often by 2039 the Path 15 corridor through rural Fresno County could be congested, according to a study commissioned by Next 10. The report argues that building data centers in solar-rich rural zones, and pairing them with batteries, would soak up energy that California already produces but often can’t move to cities because of transmission bottlenecks.

Researchers led by University of Pennsylvania’s Benjamin Lee modeled a 20 megawatt data center in Fresno County and a version with a 10 MW battery. Their scenarios found that using curtailed solar, plus some demand flexibility, can beat fossil-heavy urban power on both cost and carbon. They also flag why this matters to ratepayers: CAISO pegs Bay Area high‑voltage upgrades alone at $700 million to $1.1 billion, costs that typically show up on bills.

Curtailment climbed 23% from 2023 to 2024, the report says, enough energy to run about 500,000 California homes for a year. Seventy percent of that waste traces back to congestion, not oversupply, which is why the authors recommend “curtailment compute zones” sited along known choke points.

Why this lands in the Valley

The PG&E “Fresno Zone” has the highest curtailment in the state, and Path 15 is projected to be constrained for more than 7,300 hours in 2039. In plain terms, solar farms west of Huron and across the Westlands area often can’t push midday power north or to the coast when the lines fill up, so output is dialed back. That’s stranded energy, sitting next to flat land, existing substations, and highway access that data center builders look for.

The national frame is political, but the on-the-ground math is local. E&E framed the study as a possible way to square President Donald Trump’s call for more AI data centers and lower electric bills with the reality of today’s grid. If companies build next to where the power is curtailed, they avoid long waits for new lines and reduce the need to run gas plants closer to cities. Fresno County would be one of those places.

(A half‑empty can of Diet Coke sweated on the newsroom desk.)

What it would take

The authors don’t pretend this is a flip-the-switch fix. They argue for siting near congestion points, adding batteries to shift workloads into the evening shoulder, and using “load flexibility,” a wonky way of saying some tasks can wait a few hours. They also point out that moving demand to rural corridors can be faster than building new high‑voltage lines, which can take years and come with billion‑dollar price tags.

For the Valley, that means local boards and planners would be asked to weigh land use, water and tax agreements if proposals show up along the Path 15 corridor. The Fresno Zone already has the curtailment and the interties. The question is whether companies chasing AI buildouts choose to follow the electrons.

“Curtailed solar energy represents a missed opportunity for California to put carbon‑free electricity to use,” Next 10’s Stephanie Leonard said. “By siting a data center close to the power line congestion, we can move energy demand closer to the source.”

Central Valley AI is produced by the CVAI Newsdesk team and developed by Kaweah Tech, a regional firm that builds, deploys, and integrates AI solutions for businesses across California's Central Valley.

Source

https://www.eenews.net/articles/how-solar-power-could-aid-trumps-ai-agenda/